The impact of climate change has resulted in more and more destructive forest fires that ravage ecosystems and reshape our environment. This is changing in front of our eyes and we are the cause. The fourth and most important question of reflection is “What, me?”

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Endings are natural and we should embrace them as we embrace birth within the cycle of life. The cost of a bad ending for an organization can include the loss of skills, experience, goodwill, data and legacy. It can even include the burden of trauma that staff and volunteers may carry to their next employer, group or movement

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While fire can be destructive, it can also bring good change and renewal. When we encounter setbacks we must also be ready to “fail fast” and move on.

We must learn to ask ourselves and others when it is time to tend down our fires and pass on the embers to others to continue the movement for change.

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Normally evaluation methods and impact assessments are used at the “end” of a campaign if a goal has been achieved, if a major defeat has occurred, or if a funder withdraws its money. But the planet keeps turning and the ecosystems around us continue to seek harmony. In this Section we have reframed evaluation as reflection and action, to learn how the system has changed and what has become of our energy. Now we must train ourselves to learn what to do with that energy when it is time to pass it on.

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​Many groups and organizations set up their campaigns and programs to honor people, communities or places that have been lost or harmed. The passion that we have for our work is strong and lasting. However it is important to continue to ask ourselves if we are helping in the best way to achieve the changes that people and communities want. It may be better to distribute our resources to others who can better disrupt the status quo instead of interfering with their efforts. We might have been important in getting the movement to this point, but we may not be able to take it further. Maybe we have run out of money or lost support from our partners. The answers lie in the wider ecosystem. Which is why we recommend any campaigning you do includes movement strength, equity and justice as key outcomes, connected to your Near Star and Guiding Star.

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Here we share two concepts: the Three Horizons to help you think about the necessary path to change, and a Movement Compass to identify what stage your movement is at.

Then we share two tools: an Integrity Checklist to identify if you need to continue your role in achieving that change and a Fire Tending tool to understand how to wind down your role and redistribute efforts.

If you have completed the exercises in this chapter and decided to continue your campaign, we recommend that you return to the start of the S.E.N.S.E. process to check if the structure and equilibrium of your target and of your organization remain the same as before.

Footnotes:

Sources (formal sourcing):  Rosamond Stone Zander and Benjamin Zander, The Art of the Possible, p. 8 

Read further: The Gesturing Towards Decolonial Futures reciprocity commitments as an example: https://decolonialfutures.net/ 

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[video explainer]

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The International Futures Forum and other futures practitioners developed this model over ten years to understand and guide cultural change. It helps explore new ideas and actions when the future is uncertain. It can also be applied to organizations.

The three horizons are:

Horizon 1 - Business as usual - The organization continues doing what it has always done. 

• As a person: Risk averse Manager. 

• Consequences: The dominant narrative, power and relationships in the system prevail. 

• Questions to ask ourselves: 

  • What is business as usual and how did we get here?

  • Why do we believe our efforts are no longer fit for purpose? How quickly do we need to wind down? 

  • Is there anything we need to retain or not lose?

  • What is dying here and how can we help it to let go and leave well?

Horizon 2: Disruptive innovation

• As a person:  The Entrepreneur 

• Consequences: They see the benefits of both models and can apply the innovative thinking from H3 to help achieve the future that H1 really wants deep down - leading to H2+ rather than H2-

• Questions to ask ourselves: 

  • What are the competing visions of the future? How can we collaborate and not derail each other?

  • What does being disruptive mean, politically, economically, socially, technologically, legally and environmentally? 

  • What are the roots of those disruptions and what would it mean to cultivate not co-opt them? 

  • How might we help helpful disruptions to spread and who could we work with?

Horizon 3 - Big picture future thinking

• As a person: The Visionary

• Consequences: The future we want. They will require us to take risks, experiment, rethink things completely. 

• Questions to ask ourselves: 

  • What is the future we want to bring about?

  • What seeds of that future already exist, that we might help cultivate? How?

  • On whose work are these possibilities built upon?

  • What is being born here and how can we help it to arrive well?

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Image/graph sourced from Beautiful Trouble: https://beautifultrouble.org/toolbox/tool/the-movement-cycle

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Movement NetLab and Beautiful Trouble have refined Herbert Blumer’s attempts to map out the cycle of social movements. While movements and campaigns can evolve, flex and fluctuate in many different ways, this tool’s six movement phases can help identify patterns and next steps:

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1. Enduring Crisis: Growing Public Anger

• Movements often start in times of injustice and frustration

• Focus on building your group, raising awareness, and forming strong relationships

• Clearly define your issues and create a compelling story to attract supporters

• This helps create opportunities for action

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2. Uprising: Heroic Phase

• Identify which phase your movement is in to focus your efforts effectively

• The uprising phase starts with a trigger event that motivates people to act

• This phase is driven by a renewed sense of purpose, even without long-term plans

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3. Peak: Honeymoon

• During growth, your cause gains significant attention

• Stay focused on your message and goals

• Use this time to recruit new members, refuel, and gather resources for the future

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4. Contraction: Disillusionment

• After some successes, momentum may slow down, and internal conflicts may arise

• Focus on well-being and create safe spaces for emotional recovery

• Explain that this phase is normal and use it to analyze progress and consolidate gains

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5. Evolution: Learning and Reflection

• After setbacks, it is time to rebuild

• Reflect on past experiences and reorganize your movement

• Start new projects and experiment with new goals to give your movement fresh energy

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6. New Normal: Re-growth

• Strengthen alliances, build infrastructure, and develop skills and relationships

• Now, take bold actions and set the agenda in anticipation of the next crisis or trigger event

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Beautiful Trouble shares that the Movement Cycle helps you see contractions not as failures but as strategic phases. It guides movement organizers on what to do next and suggests effective tactics and strategies for each phase. Remember to stay grounded during high points and optimistic during low points.

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Read more: Use the interactive version which provides more tips on strategies and tactics for each movement phase: https://beautifultrouble.org/compass    

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The Cree people of Western Canada faced an existential crisis in the 1970s and 1980s with the proposed James Bay Hydroelectric Project by Hydro-Quebec, which threatened to flood their lands and disrupt their traditional way of life. Initially, Cree leaders focused on a legal campaign to halt the project, leading to temporary victories but ultimately losing ground as the Quebec Court of Appeal overturned favorable rulings. The need for a strategic shift became evident with the announcement of Phase 2 of the project in 1989.

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Around the same time, Cree elders had begun to step down from the Grand Council which had been directing the campaign. Younger members began to join the Council, including new Grand Chief Matthew Coon Come. This leadership would have had to consider questions such as:

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• Are we focusing on the right deep loop and relationships? The deep loop driving the system included a disregard for indigenous voices. By shifting to more nimble and newsworthy public engagement, the campaign could have more success.

• Are we the right people to do this work? Greater public engagement was not something that the Cree elders had previously pushed for. By the time the first dam had been built, a younger group of Cree had taken seats at the Cree Grand Council. 

• Are we effective in working with communities? Yes. The community trusted the Grand Council and now gave a mandate to the Grand Council to use any means necessary to oppose the construction of the second phase of the project.

• Should we partner with others or give them space? The decision to engage public and international partners such as Greenpeace and Sierra Club proved crucial in amplifying the Cree’s cause.

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Their strategy broadly followed a movement cycle:

• Enduring Crisis: Faced with governmental disregard, the new leaders tapped into growing public anger over environmental and indigenous rights, building a movement that resonated beyond legal confines.

• Uprising: They ignited the "heroic phase" by focusing on direct action, such as protests, media campaigns, and international outreach, shifting from a purely legal focus to public engagement.

• Peak: During the "honeymoon phase," the Cree’s cause gained significant attention, particularly in the US, where environmental and human rights became rallying points, sustaining momentum.

• Contraction: Anticipating internal conflicts and fatigue, the leaders ensured that the campaign was community-driven, maintaining morale and solidarity.

• Evolution: After the initial setbacks, the Cree reflected, reorganized, and adjusted their strategies, keeping their ultimate goals in sight.

• New Normal: The campaign evolved into a broader movement, embedding indigenous rights and environmental concerns into the national conversation, influencing future policies.

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The second phase of the campaign was successful:

• The campaign focus shifted from a narrow legal battle to a broader, more effective public campaign that engaged communities, media, and international audiences across the system. 

• This holistic approach ultimately led to the suspension of the second phase

• This strategic transition of leadership guided by systemic thinking, ensured that the Cree could navigate their movement effectively through its various phases, achieving their goals while laying the groundwork for future advocacy.

Note: For more on how the Cree were successful by focusing on the Who level of the system, see Chapter 3: Levels are Levers.

Read more: 

The Cree Nation of Waskaganish: The James Bay Project https://waskaganish.ca/the-james-bay-project/ 

Non Violent Direct Action database: https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/cree-first-nations-stop-second-phase-james-bay-hydroelectric-project-1989-1994 

The Link Newspaper: The Hydroelectric Crises - The Fight to Live in the North, https://thelinknewspaper.ca/article/the-hydroelectric-crises-the-fight-to-live-in-the-north 

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“History is a relay of revolutions” - Saul Alinsky