SECTION 2: EQUALIBIRUM
CHAPTER 9 - LOOPS CAN BE UNLOCKED
Unlock and replace a system’s deep loop to shift the system itself.
In Chapter 6 we saw how relationships power systems. Whether mutualist, commensalistic or parasitic, the different members or elements of each relationship (whether people or things) can gain or lose from their interactions. These interactions are called loops.
In this Chapter we see how loops power relationships. Every system has multiple loops between multiple actors and elements, and beneath it all has a deep loop (or loops) that drives and sustains it, keeping it aligned with its Guiding Star.
Changemakers spend hours attempting to draw or write out a linear theory of change to explain why or how their efforts will succeed, when often they have not identified what the essential elements, relationships or loops are that need to change.
Here we propose a more effective systems-led approach: to identify a deep loop to explain what needs to change at specific levels of the system. Then Sections 3 and 4 of this resource will help us establish how to make those changes happen.
There are three steps to this process:
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Identify the loops among the relationships in the system. To understand how these loops work it is helpful to consider the four types of loop:
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Vicious loops make things worse. For example, poverty reduces literacy. This increases unemployment, which increases poverty.
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Virtuous loops make things better. For example, a parent that holds high trust in their child offers the child more freedom. The child wants this to continue and so behaves well, earning more trust.
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Stabilizing loops keep things from getting worse. For example, the use of fossil fuels goes up. This reduces the available reserves, causing the price to go up. This reduces people’s use of fossil fuels.
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Stagnating loops keep things from getting better. For example, a student's behavior improves, so the teacher's expectations rise. Then, the teacher praises the student less and the student's behavior does not improve further.
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Identify the main themes or issues that summarize the loops. These could range from civic space and freedom of speech, to church approval of government policy.
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Identify where you and any shooting stars or allies in the system could focus to shift the system, and your aims and objectives
Footnotes: **https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/stars-milky-way-navigation-dung-beetles
A series of anti-government protests and uprisings known in the Western world as the “Arab Spring” began in the Middle East in late 2010 and spread across a number of countries, including Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria.
In general, the movements in each country aimed to challenge authoritarian regimes, demand democratic reforms, and address economic grievances. It sought to leverage social media to mobilize masses and amplify dissent. Campaigners in some countries communicated and shared tactics with each other.
These protests and uprisings demonstrated multiple types of loops:
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Virtuous Loops: In Tunisia, the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi sparked widespread protests. The rapid spread of information via social media created a virtuous loop: increased visibility of the protests led to greater international support and further mobilization. The success in Tunisia inspired similar movements in other countries, creating a positive feedback loop that encouraged additional protests.
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Vicious Loops: In countries like Syria and Libya, the uprisings quickly became violent conflicts. The brutal responses from the regimes led to a vicious loop: the more severe the repression, the more radicalized the opposition became. This was exacerbated by different forms of international and geopolitical interventions, including the support for and facilitation of foreign fighters into the countries, Syria in particular. These dynamics exacerbated the conflict, leading to prolonged violence and instability, and making peaceful resolution increasingly difficult.
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Stabilizing Loops: In some cases, regimes used stabilizing loops to maintain their control. For example, in Egypt, the military’s intervention after the fall of President Mubarak aimed to stabilize the situation by maintaining a semblance of order. While initially successful in quelling immediate unrest, it also resulted in the perpetuation of authoritarian practices and the consolidation of military power, which many saw as a return to the old regime in a new guise.
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Stagnating Loops: The aftermath of the protests in several countries saw stagnating loops. The lack of effective governance and the impacts of ongoing conflicts and geopolitical proxy wars directly affecting countries like Libya and Yemen led to a stagnation of progress. Instead of achieving democratic reforms, these nations experienced prolonged instability and economic downturns, with political systems remaining in turmoil. Their stability today remains worsened due to their positions at geopolitical crosshairs of conflicts between other powerful states including the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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These protests and uprisings led to varying outcomes across the region. Tunisia managed a relatively successful transition to democracy, showing the positive impact of virtuous loops. In contrast, countries like Syria and Libya fell into prolonged conflict and instability due to vicious and stagnating loops which did not shift the system positively.
The complex interplay of these loops creating an overall stagnation shows how initial positive momentum can be undermined by entrenched power structures and external factors, influencing the long-term success of social movements.
This illustrates how multiple types of loops can interact within a single broader movement, affecting different aspects and regions differently, and shaping the overall outcome of collective action.
concept: virtuous loop
concept: vicious loop
concept: stabalizing loop
story: protests and uprising loops
across the middle east,
late 2010
concept: stagnating loop
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tool: deep loop
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Identify the loops among the relationships in the system.
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Identify the main themes that summarize the loops. For example, in a highly religious forest-rich country which exports a large amount of wood, there could be illegal logging taking place which is threatening forest communities and ecosystems. A general election is approaching. The government wants to continue. So a deep loop might include the relationship between the following themes:
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Safety for forest communities in doing forest monitoring
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Levels of legal and illegal deforestation
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Freedom of media to access and share information
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Government reputation
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International investment in the country
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Church approval of the government
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Potential for government re-election
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3. Identify where you and any shooting stars or allies in the system could focus to shift the system, and your aims and objectives. For example in the forest-rich country your organization or your allies might wish to focus on:
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Building relationships with the Church to accompany forest communities in forest monitoring
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Build connections with different media to ensure quick access to authoritative events as they happen in the forests, as well as support forest communities to become spokespeople
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Advocate to other governments on the need for independent and safe forest monitoring in your country
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Build relationships with opinion leaders to speak out on the benefits of respecting forest communities, and the benefits of protecting their environment
Once you have done this, we recommend comparing this deep loop to the narratives you find across the system in Chapter 10. How is the deep loop the cause of / strengthened or weakened by those narratives?
